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@Horrible-Wage

#8,12488

0xff786965fa48e17dfaf320276fc42fac334ddf44

136d· 520 markets · 2020 tradesVol: $539,7812026-04-27T13:09
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

88
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 28.57x15/15
Sharpe 0.57511/15
Sortino 192456.32510/10
EV $+0.0392/10
HHI 6110/10
Profit Days 99%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Horrible-Wage is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #8124 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 104 days, they have executed 2,020 trades across 452 markets, generating a net profit of $15,017.47 on a total volume of $539,781. Their elite Smart Score of 88/100 reflects consistent performance, supported by a strong win rate of 99.1% and a profit factor of 28.57. Despite a zero portfolio value currently, their trading activity shows stability with a flat equity trend and no significant drawdown duration.

The trader’s strategy heavily favors weather markets, which make up 99% of their trading volume, indicating a specialized focus. Horrible-Wage exhibits a relatively low-risk profile, evidenced by a moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.57 and minimal sell percentage (14%). Their timing appears precise, supported by badges like “Sniper” and “Win Streak,” suggesting a disciplined, opportunistic approach to market entries. The low Bot Score implies human-driven decisions executed quickly via the interface.

Horrible-Wage’s key strengths lie in their high accuracy, risk management, and niche expertise in weather markets, making them a reliable Polymarket trader. However, the flat equity trend and zero portfolio value may raise questions about liquidity or capital deployment. Additionally, their concentrated market focus could present risks if weather market conditions change abruptly. Overall, Horrible-Wage balances precision and volume effectively, with a clear edge in specialized markets.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+15,017
Weather Pro
99% weather
Win Streak
256 wins in a row
Whale
$454,285
Consistent
91/92 days
High Roller
$4,370/day
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#76$15,020Vol: $539,753
⚽ SPORTS#983,288$-2Vol: $20

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$15,017
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$539,781
Total Redeem
$443,112
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
520
total markets
Trades
1748B / 272S
Daily Volume
$4,370
Account Age
136d
since Dec 15, 2025

Periods

#2
Week
$4,699
Vol: $0
Month
$4,930
Vol: $0
All Time
$15,017
Vol: $539,781

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
144W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$16,103
Win Rate
99%
446W / 4L
Profit Factor
28.57x
Avg Win
$41
Avg Loss
$-161

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,261 (24.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 24°C or higher on F$2,596
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 12?$1,055
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 15?$610
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February $493
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 8?$378
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 13?$336
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 25?$319
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 9?$268
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 2?$228
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 28?$210

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on$-483
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February $-116
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on February 16?$-34
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C on February 16?$-10

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.575
Sortino
inf
HHI
61
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.039
Kelly %
91.7%
Half-Kelly
45.8%
Top-1 market
2.4%
Top-5 markets
8.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
19.4
Active
Markets / Day
4.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
11:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.52
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 106s — typical for humanSize CV 2.53 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness19 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 11:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
187 entries
<=2
261 entries
<=5
372 entries
<=10
421 entries
<=20
444 entries
<=50
451 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5.9%
Mid (20-55c)7.9%
High (>55c)86.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 15.8%

Wellington$10,045
Buenos Aires$2,609
Tokyo$1,500
Paris$1,391
Sao Paulo$644
Seoul$339
Madrid$321
Singapore$321
Toronto$292
Warsaw$153
Ankara$92

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.2
Events covered
205

Moderate coverage

<=1
89 brackets
<=2
136 brackets
<=3
168 brackets
<=4
190 brackets
<=5
198 brackets
<=8
205 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/15/2025, 9:49:13 AM1 trades$110 min
12/15/2025, 5:22:43 PM1 trades$30 min
12/17/2025, 6:03:12 PM1 trades$190 min
12/18/2025, 7:03:07 PM1 trades$290 min
12/20/2025, 10:28:55 PM1 trades$300 min
12/21/2025, 6:18:37 PM1 trades$20 min
12/22/2025, 3:16:58 AM1 trades$200 min
12/22/2025, 6:04:31 PM1 trades$60 min
12/22/2025, 7:30:39 PM1 trades$120 min
12/24/2025, 6:09:43 PM1 trades$660 min
12/25/2025, 8:08:35 PM1 trades$20 min
12/25/2025, 8:27:23 PM1 trades$90 min
12/25/2025, 9:06:51 PM1 trades$750 min
12/28/2025, 6:08:49 AM2 trades$95 min
12/28/2025, 6:35:23 AM1 trades$290 min
12/28/2025, 6:53:15 PM1 trades$400 min
12/29/2025, 7:23:41 AM2 trades$141 min
12/29/2025, 1:28:35 PM1 trades$310 min
12/29/2025, 8:04:27 PM1 trades$60 min
12/30/2025, 6:49:15 AM1 trades$230 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-15
01-06
01-26
02-10
02-26
03-13
03-28

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
98.7% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
13.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.2 br/event