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Clacton by-election WinnerActive 8 days left

Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?

0x95a7c8f39ccda84bf59b54c474f2a006cbc4167737630365f416670466b37ab9

Bullish lean

Implied Yes 98.9% · CLOB volume $1.44M · whales 24h net $2.9k (13 wallets) · 7d net $173.0k · 2/11 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

98.9%

Yes

Implied No

1.1%

Volume

$1.44M

CLOB

Traders

1,123

7,545 trades

Yes 98.9%No 1.1%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

98.6% → 98.8% (+0.2pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$2.9k

Buy

$15.1k

Sell

$12.2k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$173.0k

Buy

$301.2k

Sell

$128.2k

Whales

111

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 98.9%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($2.9k)
•7d whale net still positive ($173.0k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-05 21:59:35

98.8¢$12.4k

—BUY2026-08-05 21:59:35

1.2¢$3

—BUY2026-08-05 21:59:35

1.2¢$147

NOBUY2026-08-05 21:54:39

101.3¢$0

NOBUY2026-08-05 21:54:39

98.7¢

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x77fb…266c	$205.2k	$184.5k	$20.7k	$-163.8k
0xfb51…742d	$151.6k	$103.2k	$48.4k	$-54.8k
0x7523…4c4c	$133.4k	$120.8k	$12.7k	$-108.1k
0xd8c1…16c0	$93.1k	$2.6k	$90.5k	$88.0k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x77fb…266c	417	$488.2k	$-281.7k	2
0xfb51…742d	187	$263.4k	$-106.6k	2
0x22e4…ef1c	100	$214.3k	$-98.6k	2
0x0224…292a	95	$170.1k

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