Oracle profile · 0x8bb3…688d

0x8bb3b2bf23d2b20dbba4af37ce3454c419da688d

Strong calibration — consistently better than the 0.25 random baseline.

Calibration band: strong · Leaderboard: #15,947 of 137,694

Brier score

0.115

Accuracy

78.6%

Resolved positions

2,244

Resolved volume

$14.5K

Avg outcome rate

22.9%

Avg conf. on correct

77.4¢

Full trader analyticsOracle leaderboardMethodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

BucketAvg priceOutcome ratenBrier
0.00-0.101.0¢0.5%1,2360.005
0.10-0.2012.0¢0.0%10.014
0.20-0.3027.7¢9.8%410.119
0.30-0.4035.1¢43.8%160.273
0.40-0.5046.1¢60.7%560.261
0.50-0.6054.3¢50.1%7230.253
0.60-0.7063.2¢57.1%560.248
0.70-0.8075.0¢56.3%640.281
0.80-0.9083.0¢66.0%500.251
0.90-1.0093.0¢100.0%10.005

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.00-0.10 (n=1,236). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0x8bb3b2bf23d2b20dbba4af37ce3454c419da688d. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

  • Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
  • Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
  • Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
  • Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.