Oracle profile · 0x8bed…a602

0x8bede661dd4a715f5ebd4fcea019404e11fba602

Strong calibration — consistently better than the 0.25 random baseline.

Calibration band: strong · Leaderboard: #107,671 of 693,888

Brier score

0.115

Accuracy

79.1%

Resolved positions

3,665

Resolved volume

$8.2K

Avg outcome rate

20.9%

Avg conf. on correct

76.6¢

Full trader analytics Oracle leaderboard Methodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

Bucket	Avg price	Outcome rate	n	Brier
0.00-0.10	1.3¢	0.7%	2,021	0.007
0.10-0.20	15.2¢	33.3%	3	0.250
0.20-0.30	25.3¢	42.9%	7	0.282
0.30-0.40	35.4¢	33.3%	45	0.224
0.40-0.50	46.8¢	42.7%	858	0.247
0.50-0.60	51.2¢	50.1%	731	0.251

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.00-0.10 (n=2,021). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0x8bede661dd4a715f5ebd4fcea019404e11fba602. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.