Oracle profile · 0xa9db…de81

0xa9dbbaec44a51c3b621cb5402bb377aa89a7de81

Strong calibration — consistently better than the 0.25 random baseline.

Calibration band: strong · Leaderboard: #165,514 of 693,888

Brier score

0.147

Accuracy

84.3%

Resolved positions

1,577

Resolved volume

$2.0K

Avg outcome rate

25.8%

Avg conf. on correct

83.5¢

Full trader analytics Oracle leaderboard Methodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

Bucket	Avg price	Outcome rate	n	Brier
0.00-0.10	1.0¢	0.2%	927	0.002
0.30-0.40	33.0¢	50.0%	2	0.279
0.40-0.50	45.0¢	0.0%	1	0.203
0.50-0.60	51.0¢	100.0%	1	0.240
0.60-0.70	69.0¢	0.0%	1	0.476
0.70-0.80	77.0¢	66.7%	3	0.226
0.80-0.90	85.1¢	50.0%	8	0.338
0.90-1.00	97.3¢	62.5%	634	0.354

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.00-0.10 (n=927). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0xa9dbbaec44a51c3b621cb5402bb377aa89a7de81. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.