Oracle profile · 0xdf21…9ced

0xdf21696ff1b5274661efcda0ab03f14742b09ced

Strong calibration — consistently better than the 0.25 random baseline.

Calibration band: strong · Leaderboard: #235,185 of 693,888

Brier score

0.173

Accuracy

81.4%

Resolved positions

860

Resolved volume

$2.4K

Avg outcome rate

21.6%

Avg conf. on correct

80.6¢

Full trader analytics Oracle leaderboard Methodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

Bucket	Avg price	Outcome rate	n	Brier
0.00-0.10	1.1¢	1.1%	523	0.011
0.10-0.20	16.1¢	0.0%	7	0.027
0.20-0.30	23.9¢	50.0%	2	0.350
0.30-0.40	37.5¢	50.0%	2	0.281
0.40-0.50	43.2¢	100.0%	4	0.324
0.50-0.60	53.2¢	100.0%	4	0.220
0.60-0.70	63.6¢	33.3%	3	0.337
0.70-0.80	71.0¢	33.3%	3	0.371
0.80-0.90	85.5¢	75.0%	4	0.216
0.90-1.00	97.6¢	53.6%	308	0.443

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.00-0.10 (n=523). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0xdf21696ff1b5274661efcda0ab03f14742b09ced. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.