@tailrisk

#2,941,46522

0x89f947706e62cc096f4b7d0a1f5cff8a13344191

~79d· 48 markets · 265 tradesVol: $51,9672026-08-06 06:24:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

22
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

48% (22/46)8.9/20
0.43x (win $828 / loss $1,912)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -5.5810/15
Sortino -5.8750/10
$-0.1897 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 704 (46 markets)9/10
16/36 profitable days (44%)3.6/10
Max DD 619% of peak ($1,298 / $210)0/10

Badges

3
Contrarian
58% entries < $0.55
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
22/24 hours active

Categories

6
⚽ SPORTS#1,644,495$-75Vol: $22,937
🏛️ POLITICS#1,593,998$-446Vol: $12,779
🎭 CULTURE#802,199$-334Vol: $11,435
💰 FINANCE#523,776$-3Vol: $2,003
📈 ECONOMICS#651,870$-60Vol: $1,514
📢 MENTIONS#168,647$-180Vol: $1,263

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,107
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$51,967
Total Redeem
$82
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
48
total markets
Trades
125B / 140S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~79d

Periods

#2
Week
$-69
Vol: $9,391
Month
$-69
Vol: $9,391
All Time
$-1,107
Vol: $51,967

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
48%
22W / 24L events
Realized PnL
$-1,107
Win Rate
48%
22W / 24L
Profit Factor
0.43x
Avg Win
$38
Avg Loss
$-80

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $383 (0.3461104032819178% of PnL)

Top Winners

Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays$147
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?$139
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?$97
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays$66
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays$64
Spurs vs. Knicks$45
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$37
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?$33
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays$32
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?$25

Top Losers

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-439
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?$-200
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?$-146
Will Angelina Keeley be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?$-102
Will Charlie Davis be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?$-102
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?$-100
Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?$-100
Will Kamala say "abortion" at debate?$-100
US forces enter Iran by December 31?$-83
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?$-71

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.288
Sortino
-0.302
HHI
621
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.191
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
12.3%
Top-5 markets
50.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
1:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2h
between trades
Avg Gap
5.4h
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.02
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 4484s — normal for humanCV 1.02 — diverse sizes (human-like)31% night trades — never sleeps22/24 hours — around the clock0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal30% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 1:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.74
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)27.2%
Mid (20-55c)31.2%
High (>55c)41.6%

Sessions

#12
5/11/2026, 4:43:51 PM7 trades$8120 min
2/26/2026, 5:33:00 PM1 trades$4000 min
7/21/2024, 7:39:20 PM2 trades$3641 min
3/23/2026, 10:30:33 PM5 trades$3017 min
4/5/2026, 5:36:15 PM7 trades$2850 min
8/5/2026, 4:04:06 PM13 trades$2714 min
3/5/2026, 5:33:21 AM1 trades$2250 min
8/14/2024, 2:16:38 PM1 trades$2120 min
4/27/2026, 7:52:16 PM4 trades$2121 min
7/23/2024, 3:39:32 AM1 trades$2050 min
4/1/2026, 8:56:07 PM2 trades$2020 min
7/23/2024, 3:14:32 AM4 trades$2004 min
10/24/2024, 2:01:53 PM1 trades$1940 min
7/25/2024, 3:49:32 PM1 trades$1880 min
7/23/2024, 10:29:09 PM2 trades$1791 min
8/9/2024, 3:30:45 PM1 trades$1690 min
5/2/2026, 11:22:38 PM7 trades$1661 min
12/25/2024, 10:27:29 PM1 trades$1580 min
8/2/2024, 3:19:32 PM1 trades$1510 min
8/18/2024, 11:57:35 PM2 trades$1505 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-14
07-30
09-10
03-18
03-31
04-28

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 652 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
52.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.74/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L27.2 / M31.2 / H41.6