Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?

0xaff5b702feef28fd0207583e17f8f2610d8191b5951441974e166dcdb61366e2

Bearish lean

Implied Yes 6.5% · CLOB volume $12.0k · whales 24h net $0 (0 wallets) · 7d net $146 · 3/6 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

6.5%

Yes

Implied No

93.5%

Volume

$12.0k

CLOB

Traders

142 trades

Yes 6.5%No 93.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$146

Buy

$1.4k

Sell

$1.2k

Whales

Bull case

•7d whale net still positive ($146)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 6.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($12.0k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-04 20:58:57

1666.7¢$3

YESBUY2026-08-04 20:58:57

6.0¢$0

NOBUY2026-08-04 20:54:06

94.0¢$28

YESBUY2026-08-04 20:54:06

6.0¢$2

NOBUY2026-08-04 14:57:08

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x0c0e…434e	$7.7k	$7.1k	$603	$-6.5k
0xc3fc…484a	$1.4k	$1.2k	$262	$-895
0xff7c…b233	$996	$60	$936	$877
0x2a20…89d2	$588	$388	$200	$-188

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x2e0b…8070	184	$278.9k	$-154.9k	3
0x0c0e…434e	79	$122.9k	$-86.1k	4
0xfd66…fb6d	22	$93.4k	$-14.6k	2
0x6d9f…9790	101	$83.0k

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