ArmageddonRewardsBilly

@ArmageddonRewardsBilly

#59382

0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418

~607d· 10288 markets · 1280603 tradesVol: $520,288,320 @Eltonma2026-10-08 00:25:48
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

82
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

61% (22708/37194)15.5/20
1.52x (win $14,527,466 / loss $9,580,282)9/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.26615/15
Sortino 2.44110/10
$+0.9566 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 22 (37194 markets)10/10
255/500 profitable days (51%)5.2/10
Max DD 35% of peak ($1,627,015 / $4,603,362)6.9/10

Badges

8
Sniper
Win rate 61%
Profitable
PnL $+354,520
Diamond Hands
1% sells
DCA Master
Avg 31.2 entries/market
Whale
$5,171,809 invested
High Roller
$8,520/day
Win Streak
18 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,658,099$-45,001Vol: $274,094,809
📈 ECONOMICS#3$946,568Vol: $70,844,882
💰 FINANCE#669,445$-450,069Vol: $62,928,311
₿ CRYPTO#242$119,148Vol: $35,627,753
⚽ SPORTS#1,940,567$-109,262Vol: $32,664,303
🎭 CULTURE#827,719$-39,767Vol: $22,954,812
💻 TECH#275,014$-48,920Vol: $7,390,659
🌤️ WEATHER#305,275$-4,542Vol: $5,832,991
📢 MENTIONS#182,387$-31,120Vol: $4,941,095

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$338,755
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$520,288,320
Total Redeem
$15,857,095
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
10288
total markets
Trades
17288B / 8718S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~607d

Periods

#2
Today
$497
Vol: $157,897
Week
$-5,706
Vol: $1,281,228
Month
$590,298
Vol: $6,621,320
All Time
$338,755
Vol: $520,288,320

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
61%
22645W / 14414L events
Realized PnL
$354,520
Win Rate
61%
22645W / 14414L
Profit Factor
1.52x
Avg Win
$640
Avg Loss
$-692

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3,043,466 (8.58476442057489% of PnL)

Top Winners

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1,143,234
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$957,553
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$942,680
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$560,083
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$474,050
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$263,249
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$250,317
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$250,115
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$219,626
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$212,114

Top Losers

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$-1,306,422
Fed rate hike in 2026?$-253,841
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$-197,291
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$-187,284
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$-164,756
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?$-154,801
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$-151,873
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$-151,147
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$-150,460
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$-150,059

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.066
Sortino
0.091
HHI
54647
Concentrated
EV per $1
$0.021
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
85.8%
Top-5 markets
360.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2109.7
Very active
Markets / Day
16.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
17.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
35.6m
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.55
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.1

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 1034s — normal for humanCV 6.56 — diverse sizes (human-like)0% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock2110 trades/day — automation17 markets/day — mass coverage2% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
31.22
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)22.4%
Mid (20-55c)12.3%
High (>55c)65.3%

Sessions

#12
6/10/2026, 8:26:24 AM4 trades$146,2315 min
6/3/2026, 9:20:13 AM1 trades$99,8000 min
5/21/2026, 3:48:07 PM1 trades$97,4030 min
3/4/2026, 10:08:17 PM5 trades$84,3802 min
2/2/2026, 9:45:26 PM2 trades$80,8282 min
5/26/2026, 4:49:33 AM3 trades$80,0944 min
2/28/2026, 7:52:15 AM5 trades$54,4213 min
5/30/2026, 12:10:25 AM1 trades$49,8000 min
6/17/2026, 1:47:10 PM1 trades$48,7730 min
7/22/2026, 3:50:00 PM1 trades$45,7600 min
2/28/2026, 7:07:27 AM9 trades$41,92612 min
6/10/2026, 6:41:43 AM8 trades$40,5520 min
4/30/2026, 7:52:36 PM4 trades$39,9027 min
2/7/2026, 6:27:41 PM5 trades$38,38310 min
1/18/2026, 4:46:00 AM1 trades$31,6220 min
4/2/2026, 12:22:45 AM4 trades$30,7615 min
4/14/2026, 1:01:27 AM7 trades$30,0393 min
4/8/2026, 12:10:43 AM2 trades$29,9214 min
5/7/2026, 2:06:01 PM16 trades$29,3220 min
6/14/2026, 9:17:04 PM29 trades$28,7876 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
2025-11-04 23:55:00
2026-03-02 21:00:00
2026-04-12 20:07:00
2026-05-15 21:00:00
2026-06-18 19:00:00
2026-07-27 23:59:00
2027-07-01 00:00:00

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 31.22/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L22.4 / M12.3 / H65.3