Post-mortems · research only

Who won on Polymarket?

Recently resolved markets with enough volume to study: winning outcome, total volume, and the wallets that made or lost the most. Independent analytics — Polydata never executes trades. Rankings use our realized-PnL index for markets created on or after 13 July 2026. Convert contract prices with the odds converter.

1. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No$114.3kSep 30, 2026
2. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes$67.9kSep 30, 2026
3. Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?No$63.5kSep 30, 2026
4. Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?Yes$59.8kSep 30, 2026
5. Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?No$40.6kSep 30, 2026
6. Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?No$38.5kSep 14, 2026
7. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?No$160.2kSep 1, 2026
8. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?No$136.4kSep 1, 2026
9. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?No$105.4kSep 1, 2026
10. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August?No$103.9kSep 1, 2026
11. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?No$89.1kSep 1, 2026
12. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?No$53.8kSep 1, 2026
13. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?No$32.7kSep 1, 2026
14. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?No$32.1kSep 1, 2026
15. Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes$29.1kSep 1, 2026
16. US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Yes$3.92MAug 31, 2026
17. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Yes$1.07MAug 31, 2026
18. US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Yes$941.1kAug 31, 2026
19. Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?No$566.7kAug 31, 2026
20. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?No$552.3kAug 31, 2026
21. US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No$357.1kAug 31, 2026
22. Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?No$237.8kAug 31, 2026
23. Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?Yes$158.2kAug 31, 2026
24. Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No$153.1kAug 31, 2026
25. Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?No$140.6kAug 31, 2026
26. Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No$133.9kAug 31, 2026
27. US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?No$129.0kAug 31, 2026
28. Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes$117.1kAug 31, 2026
29. Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No$116.1kAug 31, 2026
30. Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?No$104.0kAug 31, 2026
31. US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Yes$78.9kAug 31, 2026
32. Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No$77.8kAug 31, 2026
33. Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No$71.2kAug 31, 2026
34. Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No$70.7kAug 31, 2026
35. Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?No$55.0kAug 31, 2026
36. Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No$49.1kAug 31, 2026
37. Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes$48.9kAug 31, 2026
38. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes$44.2kAug 31, 2026
39. Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No$37.2kAug 31, 2026
40. Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No$30.4kAug 31, 2026
41. Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No$29.7kAug 31, 2026
42. Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?No$25.8kAug 31, 2026
43. Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No$158.2kAug 31, 2026
44. Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No$79.9kAug 31, 2026
45. Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No$46.9kAug 31, 2026
46. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?No$39.9kAug 31, 2026
47. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?No$1.18MAug 31, 2026
48. Iran leadership change by August 31?No$622.7kAug 31, 2026
49. NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?No$260.5kAug 31, 2026
50. Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?No$87.4kAug 31, 2026
51. Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?No$86.5kAug 31, 2026
52. Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?No$84.7kAug 31, 2026
53. Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes$71.6kAug 31, 2026
54. Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?No$70.6kAug 31, 2026
55. Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?No$65.6kAug 31, 2026
56. Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?No$58.1kAug 31, 2026
57. Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes$55.4kAug 31, 2026
58. Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?No$53.9kAug 31, 2026
59. Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?No$52.1kAug 31, 2026
60. Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?No$46.4kAug 31, 2026
61. Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?No$44.4kAug 31, 2026
62. Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?No$43.8kAug 31, 2026
63. Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?No$42.9kAug 31, 2026
64. Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?No$36.0kAug 31, 2026
65. Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?No$34.5kAug 31, 2026
66. Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026?No$31.5kAug 31, 2026
67. Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?No$31.0kAug 31, 2026
68. Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?Yes$41.4kAug 23, 2026

68 markets · 45-day window · $25k volume floor. See methodology.