Oracle profile · 0x9d87…4bec

0x9d87a8bc667f0e8de9d1bd0d4037578ce0f34bec

Excellent calibration — predictions track outcomes very closely.

Calibration band: excellent · Leaderboard: #25,476 of 502,378

Brier score

0.054

Accuracy

94.1%

Resolved positions

860

Resolved volume

$943

Avg outcome rate

5.8%

Avg conf. on correct

88.3¢

Full trader analyticsOracle leaderboardMethodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

BucketAvg priceOutcome ratenBrier
0.00-0.103.2¢4.3%4230.038
0.10-0.2010.3¢7.0%4270.066
0.20-0.3023.3¢0.0%40.055
0.30-0.4040.0¢0.0%10.160
0.40-0.5040.0¢50.0%20.260
0.50-0.6057.4¢0.0%10.329
0.60-0.7061.3¢100.0%10.149
0.70-0.8076.0¢0.0%10.577

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.10-0.20 (n=427). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0x9d87a8bc667f0e8de9d1bd0d4037578ce0f34bec. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

  • Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
  • Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
  • Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
  • Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.