SebastienFolin

@SebastienFolin

#174,91742

0x0558909a4fb519ac3a1bb9b0b758568535e72868

~79d· 680 markets · 2460 tradesVol: $345,1372026-10-07 16:08:03
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

42
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

77% (522/680)20/20
0.92x (win $277 / loss $299)1.6/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.1660/15
Sortino -0.1690/10
$-0.0004 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 19 (680 markets)10/10
73/78 profitable days (94%)10/10
Max DD 148% of peak ($288 / $194)0/10

Badges

6
Sniper
Win rate 77%
Profitable
PnL $+132
Whale
$56,386 invested
Consistent
73/78 profitable days
Win Streak
21 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#4,995$187Vol: $345,137

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$187
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$345,137
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
680
total markets
Trades
1242B / 1218S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~79d

Periods

#2
Today
$7
Vol: $1,457
Week
$112
Vol: $29,255
Month
$-48
Vol: $131,681
All Time
$187
Vol: $345,137

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
77%
522W / 158L events
Realized PnL
$132
Win Rate
77%
522W / 158L
Profit Factor
0.92x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-75

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $8 (0.05916710915573086% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18?$3
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17?$2
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?$2
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5?$2
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10?$2
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11?$2
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28?$2
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15?$2
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6?$2
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14?$2

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17?$-299

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.009
Sortino
-287.949
HHI
18
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.000
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.5%
Top-5 markets
1.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
22.6
Active
Markets / Day
6.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.85
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
11.8

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 287s — normal for humanCV 0.85 — diverse sizes (human-like)13% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock23 trades/day — high frequency6.2 markets/day — normal50% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.62
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)100%

Sessions

#12
6/9/2026, 10:02:51 AM34 trades$1,36212 min
6/5/2026, 10:01:22 AM10 trades$8973 min
6/10/2026, 3:31:03 PM14 trades$8133 min
6/13/2026, 5:02:25 PM26 trades$7816 min
6/5/2026, 11:00:48 PM16 trades$7000 min
6/17/2026, 12:01:25 AM16 trades$66112 min
6/16/2026, 10:00:53 PM12 trades$6290 min
6/14/2026, 6:05:15 PM15 trades$57313 min
6/8/2026, 10:03:24 AM18 trades$5600 min
6/19/2026, 10:00:49 PM9 trades$5243 min
6/17/2026, 10:31:01 AM4 trades$5170 min
5/16/2026, 10:00:39 AM11 trades$5130 min
6/4/2026, 10:01:07 AM7 trades$5130 min
6/11/2026, 10:02:19 AM7 trades$4930 min
6/10/2026, 10:01:15 AM24 trades$4896 min
6/21/2026, 5:01:37 PM10 trades$4720 min
6/4/2026, 10:00:33 PM13 trades$4713 min
6/18/2026, 10:00:50 AM14 trades$4709 min
5/15/2026, 10:02:06 AM8 trades$4493 min
6/12/2026, 3:32:13 PM10 trades$4343 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-12
06-07
06-20
07-06
07-21
08-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 1 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
49.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.62/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L0 / M0 / H100