cit500

@cit500

#2,932,07127

0x12b20c267ade52dbdda9dce0684ffaec7d93a11d

~192d· 4303 markets · 21660 tradesVol: $148,427 @logcowboy2026-10-06 03:28:18
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

27
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

52% (2147/4152)10.9/20
0.93x (win $6,145 / loss $6,635)1.6/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.6810/15
Sortino -1.8530/10
$-0.0107 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 25 (4152 markets)10/10
83/169 profitable days (49%)4.8/10
Max DD 1635% of peak ($730 / $45)0/10

Badges

4
Contrarian
61% entries < $0.55
DCA Master
Avg 5.3 entries/market
Win Streak
13 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
₿ CRYPTO#1,652,975$-680Vol: $80,018
🏛️ POLITICS#123,231$25Vol: $26,109
💰 FINANCE#19,273$90Vol: $13,467
🎭 CULTURE#689,455$-10Vol: $12,057
💻 TECH#6,788$90Vol: $9,612
⚽ SPORTS#283,860$9Vol: $2,219
🌤️ WEATHER#218,112$-3Vol: $2,124
📈 ECONOMICS#584,101$-6Vol: $1,871
📢 MENTIONS#114,298$-4Vol: $686

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-494
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$148,427
Total Redeem
$47
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
4303
total markets
Trades
14597B / 7063S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~192d

Periods

#2
Today
$-10
Vol: $21
Week
$87
Vol: $2,843
Month
$292
Vol: $8,872
All Time
$-494
Vol: $148,427

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
52%
2146W / 2006L events
Realized PnL
$-659
Win Rate
52%
2146W / 2006L
Profit Factor
0.93x
Avg Win
$3
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $143 (0.21701017638048437% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 12PM ET$64
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 2PM ET$41
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$38
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?$34
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$31
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8AM ET$30
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 6AM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10AM ET$24
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$22

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4PM ET$-344
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 4PM ET$-61
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4AM ET$-52
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3PM ET$-46
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 6AM ET$-46
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 8PM ET$-42
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?$-29
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 4PM ET$-25
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?$-24

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.088
Sortino
-0.075
HHI
18
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.011
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.3%
Top-5 markets
5.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
66.6
Very active
Markets / Day
13.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
15.4m
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.62
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
27 min
Avg Trades / Session
54.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 110s — normal for humanCV 1.62 — diverse sizes (human-like)18% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock67 trades/day — mass trading13 markets/day — mass coverage45% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.3
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.4%
Mid (20-55c)50.1%
High (>55c)39.5%

Sessions

#12
3/8/2026, 5:48:01 PM472 trades$2,212150 min
2/10/2026, 4:08:57 PM127 trades$93439 min
3/9/2026, 9:09:17 AM196 trades$88733 min
3/8/2026, 3:22:07 PM152 trades$633101 min
10/10/2025, 4:55:26 AM60 trades$55337 min
9/9/2025, 8:53:24 PM7 trades$5326 min
3/7/2026, 3:15:25 PM102 trades$46961 min
9/26/2025, 8:11:48 AM44 trades$37821 min
9/19/2025, 2:02:56 PM1 trades$3380 min
9/19/2025, 12:48:00 PM6 trades$3344 min
10/10/2025, 9:58:26 AM22 trades$32612 min
9/10/2025, 8:49:07 PM3 trades$3004 min
9/19/2025, 6:58:46 PM5 trades$3000 min
10/7/2025, 1:13:10 PM78 trades$29335 min
12/8/2025, 9:00:35 AM46 trades$29040 min
3/16/2026, 1:27:09 PM4 trades$2300 min
4/15/2026, 2:23:18 PM100 trades$22762 min
9/26/2025, 7:43:46 AM33 trades$22718 min
3/8/2026, 11:57:39 PM49 trades$22141 min
2/20/2026, 8:10:48 AM54 trades$2187 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-03
10-03
11-01
11-29
02-15
04-16
07-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 109 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
32.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.3/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L10.4 / M50.1 / H39.5