@ithinkthisisloser
#2,284,627240x31f2f459d1d9673e608c780ed87aade12f33f75f
~130d· 151 markets · 802 tradesVol: $176,0782026-10-02 01:13:01
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
24
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
46% (67/146)7.9/20
0.94x (win $6,338 / loss $6,752)1.7/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.1580/15
Sortino -0.1720/10
$-0.0079 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 515 (146 markets)9.9/10
47/100 profitable days (47%)4.2/10
Max DD 557% of peak ($5,053 / $907)0/10
Badges
5Contrarian
52% entries < $0.55
DCA Master
Avg 6.0 entries/market
Whale
$52,469 invested
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
23/24 hours active
Categories
7🏛️ POLITICS#1,580,356$-236Vol: $82,843
🎭 CULTURE#12,500$239Vol: $49,746
₿ CRYPTO#1,637,499$-534Vol: $31,096
⚽ SPORTS#182,504$38Vol: $9,984
💻 TECH#2,223$567Vol: $1,108
💰 FINANCE#629,299$-54Vol: $622
🌤️ WEATHER#273,516$-38Vol: $388
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-35
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$176,078
Total Redeem
$65
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
151
total markets
Trades
417B / 385S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~130d
Periods
#2Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$352
Vol: $25,246
Month
$397
Vol: $59,057
All Time
$-35
Vol: $176,078
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
46%
67W / 79L events
Realized PnL
$-618
Win Rate
46%
67W / 79L
Profit Factor
0.94x
Avg Win
$95
Avg Loss
$-91
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,117 (3.4261926338274318% of PnL)
Top Winners
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$1,316
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$447
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$355
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$311
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?$311
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?$266
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$259
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?$245
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?$199
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$195
Top Losers
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$-4,568
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$-312
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?$-300
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$-144
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Kings$-124
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$-78
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?$-72
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?$-69
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$-60
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?$-50
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
-0.008
Sortino
-0.006
HHI
653
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.006
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
14.2%
Top-5 markets
44.8%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
2.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
30.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.5h
between trades
Night Trading
9%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.90
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.9
Bot Detection
#615
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1820s — normal for humanCV 2.90 — diverse sizes (human-like)9% night trades — normal pattern23/24 hours — around the clock3 trades/day — normal0.5 markets/day — normal53% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 15:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
5.97
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)20.1%
Mid (20-55c)31.7%
High (>55c)48.2%
Sessions
#123/31/2026, 5:51:13 PM2 trades$2,4520 min
4/6/2026, 8:00:07 AM3 trades$2,4050 min
3/31/2026, 5:08:03 PM2 trades$2,3600 min
3/29/2026, 11:02:32 AM1 trades$2,2020 min
3/23/2026, 3:32:21 PM12 trades$2,1736 min
3/30/2026, 7:00:14 AM3 trades$2,0464 min
3/30/2026, 5:56:46 AM4 trades$2,0330 min
3/21/2026, 3:05:49 PM1 trades$1,9120 min
3/21/2026, 4:35:15 PM1 trades$1,9120 min
3/23/2026, 8:20:27 AM1 trades$1,9080 min
3/23/2026, 7:22:17 AM1 trades$1,9080 min
2/23/2026, 4:23:40 PM1 trades$1,8730 min
2/22/2026, 3:28:32 PM1 trades$1,8410 min
3/15/2026, 6:42:15 AM1 trades$1,8250 min
3/23/2026, 3:13:39 PM15 trades$1,81413 min
2/7/2026, 4:50:01 PM1 trades$1,7940 min
3/5/2026, 3:44:27 PM2 trades$1,7561 min
3/13/2026, 5:00:35 PM1 trades$1,7510 min
3/5/2026, 5:58:11 AM1 trades$1,6740 min
3/5/2026, 9:18:09 AM3 trades$1,6741 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-14
02-20
03-30
05-29
06-30
07-30
09-06
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 68 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
48% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.97/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L20.1 / M31.7 / H48.2