@ernolst

#219,73462

0x9b6161280e03891e851382bf0a9f53845bee606f

~19d· 11 markets · 116 tradesVol: $7,7892026-08-06 06:24:28
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

62
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

67% (2/3)18.3/20
8.95x (win $578 / loss $65)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.0000/15
Sortino 0.0000/10
$+0.3202 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 5822 (3 markets)0/10
2/3 profitable days (67%)9.2/10
Max DD 13% of peak ($65 / $514)10/10

Badges

4
Profitable
PnL $+118
Lottery Player
67% entries < $0.20
Consistent
2/3 profitable days
Cool Head
Max DD 13%

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$118
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,789
Total Redeem
$1
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
11
total markets
Trades
86B / 30S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~19d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
67%
2W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$118
Win Rate
67%
2W / 1L
Profit Factor
8.95x
Avg Win
$289
Avg Loss
$-65

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $578 (4.904309467254835% of PnL)

Top Winners

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$484
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$94

Top Losers

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$-65

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.606
Sortino
inf
HHI
1831
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.541
Kelly %
15.7%
Half-Kelly
7.8%
Top-1 market
39.7%
Top-5 markets
59.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
24.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.9h
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.92
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1470s — normal for humanCV 2.92 — diverse sizes (human-like)2% night trades — normal pattern19/24 hours — extended activity1 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal69% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.33
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)67.4%
Mid (20-55c)8.1%
High (>55c)24.4%

Sessions

#12
3/16/2026, 2:15:33 PM2 trades$5705 min
7/30/2026, 12:44:35 PM2 trades$4390 min
7/3/2026, 9:10:11 PM18 trades$4030 min
6/18/2026, 10:24:11 PM4 trades$3671 min
7/21/2026, 2:16:21 PM2 trades$2940 min
7/21/2026, 2:40:51 PM5 trades$1452 min
7/21/2026, 3:00:43 PM4 trades$1084 min
3/16/2026, 12:21:47 AM1 trades$650 min
5/18/2026, 12:17:06 PM3 trades$630 min
5/19/2026, 6:04:57 AM1 trades$590 min
4/15/2026, 11:55:14 AM6 trades$512 min
7/30/2026, 1:30:51 PM3 trades$400 min
5/24/2026, 7:45:49 PM1 trades$240 min
5/26/2026, 5:10:53 PM1 trades$210 min
5/27/2026, 5:04:07 PM1 trades$130 min
5/22/2026, 11:06:56 AM1 trades$100 min
5/7/2026, 11:10:06 AM2 trades$90 min
5/24/2026, 7:19:51 PM1 trades$70 min
5/20/2026, 9:20:18 PM1 trades$50 min
5/23/2026, 8:52:15 AM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-16
07-21
07-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
25.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.33/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L67.4 / M8.1 / H24.4