risk-manager

@risk-manager

#75824

0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd

~554d· 394 markets · 793688 tradesVol: $713,433,4702026-08-06 06:16:45
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

24
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

46% (138/298)8.2/20
0.98x (win $74,701 / loss $76,318)2.2/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.0690/15
Sortino -0.0970/10
$-0.0063 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 401 (298 markets)10/10
89/201 profitable days (44%)3.6/10
Max DD 108% of peak ($22,704 / $21,087)0/10

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+266,535
Lottery Player
84% entries < $0.20
Diamond Hands
1% sells
DCA Master
Avg 39.5 entries/market
Whale
$257,894 invested
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
📈 ECONOMICS#362$20,340Vol: $255,348,691
⚽ SPORTS#1,507$44,818Vol: $200,220,712
🏛️ POLITICS#327$157,585Vol: $193,732,118
₿ CRYPTO#3,160$14,875Vol: $49,248,504
🎭 CULTURE#266$30,282Vol: $13,257,314
💰 FINANCE#932$5,902Vol: $861,942
🌤️ WEATHER#299,712$-13,399Vol: $188,508
💻 TECH#1,869$653Vol: $95,650
📢 MENTIONS#7,146$76Vol: $2,677

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$265,473
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$713,433,470
Total Redeem
$10,150
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
394
total markets
Trades
11169B / 4585S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~554d

Periods

#2
Today
$-63
Vol: $32
Week
$-3,982
Vol: $229,303
Month
$-2,318
Vol: $287,629
All Time
$265,473
Vol: $713,433,470

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
72%
475W / 187L events
Realized PnL
$266,535
Win Rate
72%
475W / 187L
Profit Factor
0.98x
Avg Win
$541
Avg Loss
$-480

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $35,176 (0.1319734342289765% of PnL)

Top Winners

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$14,997
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)$12,149
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$8,030
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?$5,451
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$4,908
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?$2,733
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$2,445
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$2,161
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?$1,937
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$1,745

Top Losers

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$-14,852
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$-11,130
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$-9,340
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$-5,340
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$-4,224
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$-3,183
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$-3,107
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$-2,415
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?$-2,368
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$-2,159

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.004
Sortino
-0.004
HHI
482
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.007
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
16.7%
Top-5 markets
37.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1274.0
Very active
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
18.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
49.1m
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
16.50
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1096s — normal for humanCV 16.50 — diverse sizes (human-like)1% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock1274 trades/day — automation0.6 markets/day — normal2% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
39.49
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)83.8%
Mid (20-55c)5.8%
High (>55c)10.4%

Sessions

#12
9/30/2025, 5:59:27 PM1 trades$21,4590 min
12/1/2025, 4:31:22 AM3 trades$18,4180 min
10/14/2025, 6:03:27 PM2 trades$17,4500 min
11/9/2025, 5:19:11 AM1 trades$14,5160 min
1/8/2026, 12:34:43 PM6 trades$13,8446 min
2/6/2026, 1:55:37 PM3 trades$10,1582 min
11/13/2025, 5:02:30 AM1 trades$9,9200 min
11/7/2025, 9:12:17 AM3 trades$9,7804 min
11/5/2025, 2:53:43 PM1 trades$8,6000 min
1/6/2026, 10:14:21 PM2 trades$8,4260 min
11/18/2025, 9:40:45 AM1 trades$8,2500 min
2/17/2026, 1:24:51 PM1 trades$6,9660 min
11/16/2025, 11:51:31 PM1 trades$5,9820 min
12/9/2025, 7:34:00 PM1 trades$4,9200 min
11/6/2025, 9:11:23 AM1 trades$4,8000 min
9/16/2025, 4:06:24 AM1 trades$4,6100 min
9/15/2025, 3:26:54 AM1 trades$4,5560 min
1/14/2026, 5:05:26 PM2 trades$4,4450 min
8/31/2025, 10:25:12 PM1 trades$4,3500 min
1/8/2026, 2:20:09 AM1 trades$4,3460 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-20
04-29
08-22
11-12
01-24
04-19
07-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 170 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 39.49/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L83.8 / M5.8 / H10.4