chilly99

@chilly99

#3,041,74273

0xb5836c39622aa685fcda6d0ef52b45c8802f939e

~109d· 182 markets · 1086 tradesVol: $155,435 @chillymcfrost2026-09-26 00:48:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

73
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

32% (52/161)1.1/20
2.60x (win $11,642 / loss $4,473)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 2.38815/15
Sortino 16.49610/10
$+0.5346 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 458 (161 markets)10/10
27/69 profitable days (39%)2.3/10
Max DD 18% of peak ($1,384 / $7,792)10/10

Badges

4
Lottery Player
36% entries < $0.20
Cool Head
Max DD 18%
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
₿ CRYPTO#1,640,767$-644Vol: $65,225
🏛️ POLITICS#41,392$233Vol: $29,977
⚽ SPORTS#1,870,825$-1,032Vol: $21,239
📈 ECONOMICS#11,186$119Vol: $9,940
🎭 CULTURE#754,963$-36Vol: $6,179
💰 FINANCE#610,752$-26Vol: $1,405
🌤️ WEATHER#45,819$2Vol: $420
💻 TECH#146,126$-0Vol: $40
📢 MENTIONS#41,380$1Vol: $1

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,395
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$155,435
Total Redeem
$554
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
182
total markets
Trades
662B / 424S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~109d

Periods

#2
Today
$-386
Vol: $0
Week
$-1,326
Vol: $27,061
Month
$-1,981
Vol: $61,579
All Time
$-1,395
Vol: $155,435

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
32%
52W / 109L events
Realized PnL
$-1,054
Win Rate
32%
52W / 109L
Profit Factor
2.6x
Avg Win
$224
Avg Loss
$-43

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $8,986 (8.526676850964503% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$6,982
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1,078
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$927
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$521
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$511
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$343
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$219
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$161
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?$86
Wizards vs. Nets$84

Top Losers

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$-579
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?$-451
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$-342
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$-324
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-323
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$-317
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$-197
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-122
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$-119
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$-114

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.124
Sortino
0.777
HHI
568
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.484
Kelly %
7.1%
Half-Kelly
3.6%
Top-1 market
14.2%
Top-5 markets
43.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
14.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.5h
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.67
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.8

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 854s — normal for humanCV 2.67 — diverse sizes (human-like)10% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock6 trades/day — normal1.1 markets/day — normal64% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.66
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)35.8%
Mid (20-55c)21.3%
High (>55c)42.9%

Sessions

#12
9/18/2026, 7:44:10 AM7 trades$5,1800 min
9/15/2026, 9:10:24 PM2 trades$3,5340 min
9/15/2026, 3:53:34 PM2 trades$3,3180 min
6/1/2026, 6:01:27 PM2 trades$1,0000 min
8/4/2026, 7:46:29 PM2 trades$1,0000 min
6/13/2026, 11:27:34 AM10 trades$92517 min
4/1/2026, 9:44:07 PM4 trades$8004 min
9/7/2026, 2:16:54 PM3 trades$7500 min
6/19/2026, 9:10:35 PM2 trades$7200 min
7/12/2026, 10:51:59 AM4 trades$7000 min
9/1/2026, 9:28:22 PM2 trades$6100 min
6/10/2026, 3:59:46 AM19 trades$6000 min
6/11/2026, 5:49:04 PM10 trades$5055 min
8/4/2026, 4:59:05 AM3 trades$5000 min
8/4/2026, 11:02:23 AM2 trades$5000 min
4/28/2026, 7:47:38 PM2 trades$3900 min
8/27/2026, 11:31:22 AM4 trades$3791 min
7/1/2026, 9:54:47 PM5 trades$3720 min
6/19/2026, 2:47:05 PM1 trades$3710 min
7/10/2026, 9:28:56 PM8 trades$3682 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-31
04-20
06-01
06-13
07-02
07-29
08-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 26 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.66/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L35.8 / M21.3 / H42.9