@cigarettes

#3,175,06837

0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9

~745d· 17379 markets · 3133817 tradesVol: $594,086,014 @friendlyping2026-10-08 00:25:35
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

37
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

71% (11873/16822)20/20
0.99x (win $883,013 / loss $894,349)2.3/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.1990/15
Sortino -0.3230/10
$-0.0016 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 33 (16822 markets)10/10
146/300 profitable days (49%)4.7/10
Max DD 152% of peak ($32,345 / $21,252)0/10

Badges

6
Sniper
Win rate 71%
Diamond Hands
0% sells
Whale
$6,990,903 invested
High Roller
$9,384/day
Win Streak
22 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#107$465,989Vol: $193,812,553
⚽ SPORTS#1,941,137$-389,501Vol: $188,822,135
📈 ECONOMICS#46$144,213Vol: $121,263,170
🎭 CULTURE#394$19,363Vol: $36,307,836
💰 FINANCE#262$17,353Vol: $14,339,923
💻 TECH#78$20,377Vol: $4,761,594
₿ CRYPTO#13,252$3,354Vol: $4,317,966
🌤️ WEATHER#2,144$673Vol: $3,348,614
📢 MENTIONS#26,972$5Vol: $1,185

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-13,542
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$594,086,014
Total Redeem
$3,124,399
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
17379
total markets
Trades
58788B / 3716S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~745d

Periods

#2
Today
$-15,407
Vol: $385,024
Week
$371,232
Vol: $4,829,088
Month
$-113,067
Vol: $14,744,017
All Time
$-13,542
Vol: $594,086,014

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
65%
46462W / 24672L events
Realized PnL
$-17,168
Win Rate
65%
46462W / 24672L
Profit Factor
0.99x
Avg Win
$74
Avg Loss
$-185

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $86,474 (5.0368269826116485% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$32,459
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$28,462
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?$25,553
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)$24,969
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$20,328
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$19,167
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?$16,728
49ers vs. Eagles$14,756
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?$13,592
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?$12,471

Top Losers

Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?$-59,387
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-38,102
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?$-23,746
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?$-20,042
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati?$-19,646
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$-18,951
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?$-16,688
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?$-14,161
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?$-12,828
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$-11,459

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.010
Sortino
-0.015
HHI
35
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.002
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.5%
Top-5 markets
6.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4206.5
Very active
Markets / Day
23.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
7.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
19.9m
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.08
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.3

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 454s — normal for humanCV 5.08 — diverse sizes (human-like)0% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock4206 trades/day — automation23 markets/day — mass coverage1% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.78
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11%
Mid (20-55c)14.2%
High (>55c)74.8%

Sessions

#12
4/28/2025, 9:13:10 PM1 trades$32,1140 min
5/25/2025, 6:10:03 PM8 trades$27,97111 min
7/16/2025, 3:19:52 PM2 trades$26,2330 min
7/30/2025, 12:22:13 AM8 trades$20,58016 min
5/18/2025, 5:11:28 AM2 trades$19,9903 min
10/29/2025, 2:49:37 PM6 trades$19,98210 min
8/18/2025, 2:44:18 AM2 trades$19,8162 min
11/21/2025, 4:10:47 PM4 trades$19,6365 min
10/24/2025, 12:39:17 PM6 trades$19,3626 min
5/4/2025, 8:28:45 AM1 trades$17,9820 min
5/7/2025, 11:48:01 AM3 trades$17,7951 min
5/7/2025, 12:23:28 AM2 trades$17,5850 min
9/9/2025, 2:03:22 PM2 trades$17,4920 min
2/9/2025, 7:16:32 PM3 trades$16,9983 min
9/17/2025, 12:42:20 PM5 trades$14,8616 min
9/3/2025, 6:48:58 PM3 trades$14,7303 min
9/16/2025, 6:41:22 PM3 trades$14,5081 min
11/4/2025, 2:59:01 PM5 trades$14,1746 min
6/2/2025, 5:05:16 PM5 trades$14,0872 min
4/25/2025, 10:43:29 PM5 trades$13,9865 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-12
01-31
03-22
05-11
06-30
08-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 122 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.78/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L11 / M14.2 / H74.8