@probablynothing
#2,466890xeb504e30a56b99a50edfcb0e74a1f5a707b7be06
~20d· 19 markets · 46 tradesVol: $766,4892026-09-30 16:53:41
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
89
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
67% (12/18)18.3/20
2.27x (win $133,525 / loss $58,902)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 4.99315/15
Sortino 12.33110/10
$+0.2601 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 1408 (18 markets)5.5/10
10/15 profitable days (67%)9.2/10
Max DD 38% of peak ($44,872 / $119,495)6.5/10
Badges
5Sniper
Win rate 67%
Profitable
PnL $+74,623
Whale
$286,874 invested
Consistent
10/15 profitable days
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
Categories
3🏛️ POLITICS#665$74,339Vol: $440,202
⚽ SPORTS#1,930,041$-14,702Vol: $210,721
₿ CRYPTO#2,940$14,986Vol: $115,565
Overview
#1Net PnL
$74,623
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$766,489
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
19
total markets
Trades
31B / 15S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~20d
Periods
#2Today
$-264
Vol: $0
Week
$-967
Vol: $0
Month
$809
Vol: $17,583
All Time
$74,623
Vol: $766,489
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
67%
12W / 6L events
Realized PnL
$74,623
Win Rate
67%
12W / 6L
Profit Factor
2.27x
Avg Win
$11,127
Avg Loss
$-9,817
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $83,009 (1.1123763706351575% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$67,559
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?$7,928
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac$7,522
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch?$6,932
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?$6,780
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)$6,685
BNP Paribas Open: Sebastian Korda vs Alex de Minaur$5,994
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbert$5,807
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner Tien$5,667
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card)$5,152
Top Losers
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien$-28,153
BNP Paribas Open: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonseca$-10,000
BNP Paribas Open: Zachary Svajda vs Marin Cilic$-7,150
BNP Paribas Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Marton Fucsovics$-5,563
Australian Open Men's: Denis Shapovalov vs Marin Cilic$-5,000
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? $-3,036
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.253
Sortino
0.456
HHI
1492
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.269
Kelly %
14.5%
Half-Kelly
7.2%
Top-1 market
34.8%
Top-5 markets
58%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
0.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.0
Active Hours
10/24
Normal
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
4.0h
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.23
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
23
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0
Bot Detection
#60
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 78s — normal for humanCV 1.23 — diverse sizes (human-like)4% night trades — normal pattern10/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.0 markets/day — normal2% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 19:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
1.89
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)3.2%
Mid (20-55c)9.7%
High (>55c)87.1%
Sessions
#1211/4/2024, 3:51:09 PM1 trades$49,9880 min
11/5/2024, 2:49:37 PM1 trades$49,9830 min
3/8/2026, 4:02:39 PM7 trades$24,15910 min
7/8/2024, 11:59:28 PM1 trades$21,7770 min
3/7/2026, 5:39:33 PM2 trades$20,0001 min
9/4/2026, 7:29:13 PM12 trades$17,7380 min
12/14/2025, 3:20:47 PM2 trades$15,1260 min
12/10/2025, 7:46:58 PM2 trades$15,0000 min
1/21/2026, 9:16:16 PM2 trades$15,0001 min
6/6/2024, 3:23:03 PM1 trades$14,9970 min
1/26/2026, 11:48:05 PM1 trades$11,0000 min
11/16/2025, 12:16:18 AM1 trades$10,0280 min
1/19/2026, 11:35:32 PM1 trades$10,0000 min
1/23/2026, 4:59:08 PM1 trades$10,0000 min
1/25/2026, 1:34:22 AM1 trades$10,0000 min
10/8/2025, 5:45:08 PM1 trades$9,9960 min
3/4/2026, 10:34:49 PM1 trades$7,1500 min
11/13/2025, 9:48:02 PM1 trades$6,9000 min
3/6/2026, 10:03:11 PM1 trades$5,5630 min
3/8/2026, 4:17:43 PM2 trades$3,9941 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-08
10-10
11-16
01-19
01-23
01-26
03-06
03-08
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 41 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
32.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.89/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L3.2 / M9.7 / H87.1