PropheticFire

@PropheticFire

#4,13585

0xf566870ca3c50e5863275364fa6d764f8e8f1386

~158d· 72 markets · 1226 tradesVol: $1,854,0812026-10-08 02:57:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

85
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

59% (36/61)14.5/20
1.96x (win $68,767 / loss $35,115)14.5/15
Annualised Sharpe 3.22715/15
Sortino 8.22610/10
$+0.1306 per $1 invested6.5/10
HHI 652 (61 markets)9.2/10
27/46 profitable days (59%)7.2/10
Max DD 29% of peak ($13,584 / $47,236)8.2/10

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+41,947
Lottery Player
41% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 17.0 entries/market
Whale
$257,765 invested
Cool Head
Max DD 29%
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,422$33,845Vol: $1,647,549
💰 FINANCE#667,497$-2,604Vol: $71,238
🎭 CULTURE#1,067$7,695Vol: $59,917
💻 TECH#268,960$-234Vol: $25,052
₿ CRYPTO#62,366$193Vol: $15,589
⚽ SPORTS#153,801$58Vol: $8,442
📢 MENTIONS#177,073$-330Vol: $1,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$41,947
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,854,081
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
72
total markets
Trades
745B / 481S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~158d

Periods

#2
Today
$-400
Vol: $0
Week
$410
Vol: $26,600
Month
$4,112
Vol: $26,600
All Time
$41,947
Vol: $1,854,081

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
59%
36W / 25L events
Realized PnL
$41,947
Win Rate
59%
36W / 25L
Profit Factor
1.96x
Avg Win
$1,910
Avg Loss
$-1,405

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $41,898 (0.9988294674768373% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?$22,012
Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate?$13,855
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$6,030
Daniel Penny found guilty?$3,832
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$3,717
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?$2,870
KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?$1,844
Will Chase Oliver get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate?$1,832
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?$1,702
OpenAI Sora public release in 2024?$1,351

Top Losers

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$-10,440
Will Biden pardon Fauci?$-8,414
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?$-4,461
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$-2,898
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?$-1,886
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$-1,557
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?$-1,300
Was JFK assassination an inside job?$-952
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$-540
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April?$-505

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.167
Sortino
0.334
HHI
513
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.149
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.5%
Top-5 markets
41.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
7.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.8h
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.67
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.7

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 452s — normal for humanCV 3.67 — diverse sizes (human-like)24% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock2 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal57% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
16.95
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)41.5%
Mid (20-55c)29.9%
High (>55c)28.6%

Sessions

#12
6/13/2025, 4:38:39 PM1 trades$26,5910 min
12/31/2024, 3:53:12 AM2 trades$18,6971 min
6/22/2025, 11:40:15 PM3 trades$15,8401 min
6/23/2025, 12:30:41 AM2 trades$14,8170 min
10/31/2024, 9:56:54 PM8 trades$13,03910 min
6/13/2025, 5:14:35 PM2 trades$10,2712 min
12/22/2024, 5:48:50 AM2 trades$10,0002 min
12/22/2024, 6:02:48 AM2 trades$10,0001 min
12/31/2024, 8:09:08 PM2 trades$9,4714 min
1/25/2025, 11:27:31 PM2 trades$8,6373 min
1/14/2025, 9:09:29 AM1 trades$8,1900 min
3/22/2026, 3:02:55 AM2 trades$7,6981 min
6/24/2025, 12:41:33 PM3 trades$7,6661 min
4/10/2026, 1:46:13 PM15 trades$7,0100 min
6/23/2025, 12:08:37 AM1 trades$6,7260 min
8/15/2025, 12:50:32 AM2 trades$6,1292 min
6/13/2025, 4:56:45 PM2 trades$6,1031 min
6/22/2025, 11:29:21 PM1 trades$5,4000 min
5/20/2026, 9:43:56 PM6 trades$5,1301 min
6/24/2025, 1:33:49 AM1 trades$5,0000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-17
10-13
11-22
12-10
06-24
03-29
05-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 323 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 16.95/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L41.5 / M29.9 / H28.6