Multi-outcome · 5 open
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Volume $1.2kTraders 26Trades 69
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?
open · $569
61.0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026?
open · $234
30.5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026?
open · $177
13.0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026?
open · $366
3.3%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in August 2026?
open · $597
0.5%
Top event traders (30d)
- 0x34db…1b634 mkts · $627
- 0x0547…fb352 mkts · $520
- 0x2141…7fa21 mkts · $144
- 0xa49b…70542 mkts · $70
- 0xa047…4ffa5 mkts · $53
- 0xd218…b5c91 mkts · $48
- 0x4834…5f7a1 mkts · $45
- 0xad53…ef241 mkts · $44
- 0xf83e…46633 mkts · $36
- 0xa3e2…fdf82 mkts · $24
- 0xfe2d…da352 mkts · $23
- 0xd23f…94a11 mkts · $20
- 0xf2cf…464b1 mkts · $18
- 0x3076…1f691 mkts · $16
- 0x9422…f2731 mkts · $12