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Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Active 148 days left

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

0x1e5204036bd51e6ca0e0da6221319c5839bd9940782adc6d0f6fa703aa8a3bf4

Bullish lean

Implied Yes 56.0% · CLOB volume $1.17M · whales 24h net $25.0k (69 wallets) · 7d net $634.3k · 1/6 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

56.0%

Yes

Implied No

44.0%

Volume

$1.17M

CLOB

Traders

1,086

12,070 trades

Yes 56.0%No 44.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

61.0% → 55.0% (-6.0pp)

See all movers →

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$25.0k

Buy

$43.6k

Sell

$18.5k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$634.3k

Buy

$1.26M

Sell

$621.7k

Whales

522

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 56.0%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($25.0k)
•7d whale net still positive ($634.3k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-08-06 02:31:12

45.0¢$10

NOBUY2026-08-06 02:31:12

222.2¢$22

YESBUY2026-08-06 02:25:57

45.0¢$4

NOBUY2026-08-06 02:25:57

222.2¢$9

YESBUY2026-08-06 02:25:54

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x7c3d…5c6b	$108.6k	$69.6k	$39.0k	$-30.6k
0x35bb…009b	$94.9k	$65.7k	$29.2k	$-36.6k
0xbaa2…2c73	$92.3k	$70.8k	$21.5k	$-49.3k
0xf457…ac4e	$52.9k	$25.7k	$27.1k	$1.4k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x7c3d…5c6b	254	$108.6k	$-30.6k	1
0x35bb…009b	238	$94.9k	$-36.6k	1
0xbaa2…2c73	246	$92.3k	$-49.3k	1
0xf457…ac4e	49	$52.9k

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