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Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Active 147 days left

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

0x0f4d95f12e8537ecca25d475f1bdc1747692fb2f809bb66bda5ac9544e06fb61

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 18.5% · CLOB volume $235.4k · whales 24h net $314 (15 wallets) · 7d net $21.3k · 2/5 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

18.5%

Yes

Implied No

81.5%

Volume

$235.4k

CLOB

Traders

289

3,739 trades

Yes 18.5%No 81.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

15.0% → 20.0% (+5.0pp)

See all movers →

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$314

Buy

$570

Sell

$256

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$21.3k

Buy

$29.8k

Sell

$8.4k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($314)
•7d whale net still positive ($21.3k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 18.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-08-05 18:23:29

20.0¢$2

NOBUY2026-08-05 18:23:29

500.0¢$10

NOBUY2026-08-05 15:47:33

500.0¢$20

YESBUY2026-08-05 15:47:33

20.0¢$2

YESBUY2026-08-05 15:47:33

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x74bf…2a6e	$80.9k	$40.2k	$40.6k	$409
0x6bab…0fe5	$36.5k	$18.9k	$17.7k	$-1.2k
0x54a7…881b	$16.9k	$16.5k	$378	$-16.1k
0xbaa2…2c73	$16.6k	$13.7k	$2.9k	$-10.7k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x74bf…2a6e	505	$80.9k	$409	1
0x6bab…0fe5	155	$49.6k	$-4.6k	4
0xbaa2…2c73	77	$32.0k	$-24.3k	2
0x54a7…881b	113	$27.2k

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