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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)Active 26 days left

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

0x61c2b9e70f7fdf3441fd1cfa2c8fa93308fefe3f5ecc2db87c393efab3a207a3

Bullish lean

Implied Yes 89.5% · CLOB volume $1.18M · whales 24h net $45.7k (83 wallets) · 7d net $297.8k · 3/5 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

89.5%

Yes

Implied No

10.5%

Volume

$1.18M

CLOB

Traders

875

7,930 trades

Yes 89.5%No 10.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

86.0% → 90.0% (+4.0pp)

See all movers →

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$45.7k

Buy

$75.3k

Sell

$29.6k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$297.8k

Buy

$513.1k

Sell

$215.3k

Whales

299

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 89.5%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($45.7k)
•7d whale net still positive ($297.8k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-06 05:33:47

90.0¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-06 05:33:47

111.1¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-06 05:21:59

112.4¢$0

NOBUY2026-08-06 05:21:59

89.0¢$0

NOBUY2026-08-06 05:21:57

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x05ab…8145	$145.7k	$78.3k	$67.4k	$-10.9k
0xbd04…fbb0	$123.9k	$56.5k	$67.4k	$10.9k
0xc8ab…6418	$58.3k	$58.3k	$0	$-58.3k
0x8c0b…f0fb	$47.9k	$32.8k	$15.1k	$-17.7k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xbd04…fbb0	1,496	$769.2k	$136.0k	4
0xa65c…7997	998	$561.5k	$-146.0k	3
0xe234…304a	1,147	$507.6k	$-93.5k	5
0x05ab…8145	2,425	$494.1k

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