0x81f132356dec87d798a84d37bacad685cb5c0dd4cf2e19b9159131a4a1474987
As of Oct 8, 2026, “Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?” trades at 6% YES on Polymarket with $165.7k total volume.
Mixed / balanced market
Implied Yes 5.9% · CLOB volume $165.7k · whales 24h net $503 (12 wallets) · 7d net $2.4k · 10/10 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
5.9%
Yes
Implied No
94.1%
No
Volume
$165.7k
CLOB
Traders
545
2,196 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
6.9% → 8.3% (+1.4pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$503
Buy
$1.8k
Sell
$1.3k
Whales
12
Last 7 days
Net flow
$2.4k
Buy
$5.7k
Sell
$3.3k
Whales
36
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8a97…593d | $13.4k | $8.0k | $5.4k | $-2.6k |
| 0x3eed…cb2a | $7.4k | $7.4k | $0 | $-7.4k |
| 0xc9e5…9d79 | $5.5k | $622 | $4.9k | $4.3k |
| 0x7971…baf0 | $5.0k | $362 | $4.6k | $4.2k |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3adf…2380 | 260 | $124.3k | $-17.1k | 2 |
| 0x5188…c804 | 124 | $79.0k | $10.6k | 5 |
| 0x891e…3941 | 122 | $78.8k | $-5.8k | 2 |
| 0x8a97…593d | 456 | $72.7k |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
10 open · 10 total · Event board
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?
open · $82.2k
98.5%
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
open · $79.0k
97.7%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
open · $270.5k
96.0%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
open · $969.3k
87.5%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
open · $489.6k
77.5%
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
open · $720.3k
63.5%
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?
open · $366.9k
29.1%
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?
open · $134.9k
12.7%
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?
open · $165.7k
5.9%
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?
open · $94.8k
5.3%
| 0x167a…91d5 | $4.8k | $3.6k | $1.2k | $-2.4k |
| 0x13a2…7967 | $4.6k | $393 | $4.2k | $3.8k |
| 0x22ad…8722 | $4.5k | $2.2k | $2.3k | $115 |
| 0x4b1c…9c62 | $3.6k | $3.6k | $0 | $-3.6k |
| 0xc602…7fc1 | $3.1k | $2.4k | $726 | $-1.7k |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4 | $1.9k | $1.9k | $0 | $-1.9k |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | $1.9k | $1.6k | $244 | $-1.4k |
| 0xa220…6c50 | $1.3k | $141 | $1.2k | $1.0k |
| $-20.2k |
| 6 |
| 0x6606…1338 | 87 | $69.8k | $-28.1k | 6 |
| 0x57e4…835e | 130 | $49.2k | $-25.0k | 5 |
| 0x05c6…d823 | 32 | $48.6k | $-15.2k | 2 |
| 0x032e…2a9e | 426 | $45.4k | $6.7k | 8 |
| 0x3eed…cb2a | 92 | $41.2k | $-41.2k | 5 |
| 0x635c…45c6 | 53 | $40.4k | $-7.6k | 2 |
