0xbd549c211a4b156b03a37401348ffaf6b8fcce0182e3bb48f58179ccd1fc4094
As of Oct 7, 2026, “Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?” trades at 78% YES on Polymarket with $489.6k total volume.
Bullish lean
Implied Yes 77.5% · CLOB volume $489.6k · whales 24h net $14.9k (22 wallets) · 7d net $22.0k · 10/10 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
77.5%
Yes
Implied No
22.5%
No
Volume
$489.6k
CLOB
Traders
795
4,737 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
72.0% → 78.0% (+6.0pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$14.9k
Buy
$25.2k
Sell
$10.4k
Whales
22
Last 7 days
Net flow
$22.0k
Buy
$35.6k
Sell
$13.7k
Whales
62
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188…c804 | $29.4k | $7.1k | $22.3k | $15.2k |
| 0x6606…1338 | $23.0k | $13.8k | $9.2k | $-4.6k |
| 0xded1…6877 | $22.0k | $12.8k | $9.2k | $-3.6k |
| 0x99f6…37fc | $18.5k | $15.9k | $2.6k | $-13.3k |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3adf…2380 | 260 | $124.3k | $-17.1k | 2 |
| 0x5188…c804 | 124 | $79.0k | $10.6k | 5 |
| 0x891e…3941 | 122 | $78.8k | $-5.8k | 2 |
| 0x8a97…593d | 456 | $72.7k |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
10 open · 10 total · Event board
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?
open · $82.2k
98.7%
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
open · $79.0k
97.7%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
open · $270.5k
96.0%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
open · $969.2k
87.5%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
open · $489.5k
77.5%
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
open · $710.9k
64.5%
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?
open · $366.6k
28.5%
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?
open · $134.9k
13.1%
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?
open · $165.7k
7.7%
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?
open · $94.8k
5.3%
| 0x3adf…2380 | $15.5k | $9.3k | $6.1k | $-3.2k |
| 0x813a…d904 | $15.3k | $2.6k | $12.8k | $10.2k |
| 0xdf0f…1d61 | $14.9k | $14.9k | $0 | $-14.9k |
| 0x930a…2b42 | $11.6k | $11.6k | $0 | $-11.6k |
| 0x891e…3941 | $11.1k | $2.2k | $8.9k | $6.7k |
| 0x05c6…d823 | $10.0k | $9.8k | $198 | $-9.6k |
| 0x57e4…835e | $9.8k | $7.4k | $2.5k | $-4.9k |
| 0xba0d…9a6e | $7.4k | $5.0k | $2.4k | $-2.6k |
| $-20.2k |
| 6 |
| 0x6606…1338 | 85 | $64.8k | $-23.1k | 6 |
| 0x05c6…d823 | 32 | $48.6k | $-15.2k | 2 |
| 0x57e4…835e | 129 | $48.6k | $-24.4k | 5 |
| 0x032e…2a9e | 424 | $45.4k | $6.7k | 8 |
| 0xdf0f…1d61 | 80 | $42.5k | $-42.0k | 6 |
| 0x3eed…cb2a | 92 | $41.2k | $-41.2k | 5 |
