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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?Active 147 days left

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0x8d4966e84ae80f24b2e14643fdd45364e354229e11e2c17903b4b1763cfbe67c

Bearish lean

Implied Yes 0.5% · CLOB volume $2.37M · whales 24h net $-4.2k (14 wallets) · 7d net $20.8k · 13/13 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

0.5%

Yes

Implied No

99.5%

Volume

$2.37M

CLOB

Traders

2,231

32,165 trades

Yes 0.5%No 99.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

0.5% → 0.6% (+0.1pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$-4.2k

Buy

$2.2k

Sell

$6.4k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$20.8k

Buy

$61.1k

Sell

$40.3k

Whales

Bull case

•7d whale net still positive ($20.8k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 0.5% — No favored
•Whales net sellers 24h ($-4.2k)
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

—BUY2026-08-06 04:35:42

0.6¢$2

NOBUY2026-08-06 04:35:42

16666.7¢$355

NOBUY2026-08-05 23:06:54

20000.0¢$558

—BUY2026-08-05 23:06:54

0.5¢$3

NOBUY2026-08-05 22:39:20

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xe821…b27e	$127.9k	$102.3k	$25.6k	$-76.7k
0xb687…aee5	$101.3k	$98.0k	$3.2k	$-94.8k
0xbdef…fa87	$87.8k	$2.2k	$85.6k	$83.4k
0xd600…b66e	$43.8k	$35.7k	$8.2k	$-27.5k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xb687…aee5	10,247	$1.27M	$-1.06M	13
0xc21e…0215	24,932	$1.20M	$-1.20M	6
0x442e…53d1	591	$888.4k	$883.5k	12
0x3a8a…7699	417	$519.4k

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