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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Active 25 days left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

0x31327c6fbdc70a44d97f8e8973f536b6a748e01b4c0ca5549ed0910c703b1d7b

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 4.3% · CLOB volume $1.21M · whales 24h net $9.8k (29 wallets) · 7d net $204.8k · 3/10 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

4.3%

Yes

Implied No

95.8%

Volume

$1.21M

CLOB

Traders

632

3,730 trades

Yes 4.3%No 95.8%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

3.0% → 4.3% (+1.3pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$9.8k

Buy

$29.6k

Sell

$19.8k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$204.8k

Buy

$425.4k

Sell

$220.6k

Whales

197

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($9.8k)
•7d whale net still positive ($204.8k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 4.3% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-05 21:29:09

104.4¢$9

NOBUY2026-08-05 21:29:09

95.8¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-05 21:29:09

95.8¢$7

YESBUY2026-08-05 21:16:57

4.3¢$100

NOBUY2026-08-05 21:16:57

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xa5fd…36d1	$105.6k	$37.7k	$68.0k	$30.3k
0x8c66…44f3	$84.9k	$14.0k	$70.9k	$56.9k
0xc96c…6a98	$75.4k	$22.5k	$53.0k	$30.5k
0x8792…4174	$55.1k	$32.0k	$23.1k	$-9.0k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x9648…6825	380	$227.4k	$-226.8k	6
0xa5fd…36d1	401	$155.8k	$22.8k	2
0xc8ab…6418	305	$153.3k	$-126.6k	3
0x0260…0d88	217	$128.2k

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