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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Active 147 days left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 13.0% · CLOB volume $269.5k · whales 24h net $6.8k (20 wallets) · 7d net $62.8k · 3/10 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

13.0%

Yes

Implied No

87.0%

Volume

$269.5k

CLOB

Traders

274

1,473 trades

Yes 13.0%No 87.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

15.0% → 13.0% (-2.0pp)

See all movers →

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$6.8k

Buy

$11.4k

Sell

$4.6k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$62.8k

Buy

$101.7k

Sell

$39.0k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($6.8k)
•7d whale net still positive ($62.8k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 13.0% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-06 00:51:06

769.2¢$18

YESBUY2026-08-06 00:51:06

13.0¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-06 00:51:06

114.9¢$8

NOBUY2026-08-05 18:22:06

86.0¢$125

YESBUY2026-08-05 18:22:06

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x122c…fbed	$35.1k	$19.9k	$15.2k	$-4.8k
0x9648…6825	$29.7k	$29.7k	$0	$-29.7k
0xf9b7…60a4	$16.7k	$12.3k	$4.3k	$-8.0k
0x8792…4174	$14.0k	$8.2k	$5.7k	$-2.5k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x9648…6825	380	$227.4k	$-226.8k	6
0xa5fd…36d1	401	$155.8k	$22.8k	2
0xc8ab…6418	305	$153.3k	$-126.6k	3
0x0260…0d88	217	$128.2k

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