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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Active 10 days left

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

0x6acdc3316f0b43ca4fbc13623fc018e30f2fd20ae7b93bdc07c8193e99b0ac4d

Bullish lean

Implied Yes 89.5% · CLOB volume $1.06M · whales 24h net $54.8k (93 wallets) · 7d net $371.0k · 3/7 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

89.5%

Yes

Implied No

10.5%

Volume

$1.06M

CLOB

Traders

1,960

11,698 trades

Yes 89.5%No 10.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

89.0% → 88.0% (-1.0pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$54.8k

Buy

$95.5k

Sell

$40.7k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$371.0k

Buy

$658.6k

Sell

$287.7k

Whales

406

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 89.5%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($54.8k)
•7d whale net still positive ($371.0k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-06 05:15:57

113.6¢$5

NOBUY2026-08-06 05:15:57

833.3¢$5

NOBUY2026-08-06 05:15:41

909.1¢$2.1k

YESBUY2026-08-06 05:15:41

11.0¢$66

YESBUY2026-08-06 05:15:41

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x60a9…5a71	$87.7k	$52.5k	$35.2k	$-17.3k
0x6cd8…d98d	$54.8k	$29.3k	$25.5k	$-3.8k
0x2525…b919	$48.9k	$28.5k	$20.3k	$-8.2k
0xe3cb…ac21	$42.3k	$17.1k	$25.1k	$8.0k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xe3cb…ac21	279	$581.9k	$-368.3k	5
0x2d99…4ca3	306	$520.3k	$-410.6k	4
0x7f9e…3a0e	194	$434.4k	$-21.7k	6
0xeb49…693e	363	$431.4k

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