0xdf8e2dc5860027decbe6164555c3c1c9645c3bd33e16b9dc57ca87125047d4a8
As of Oct 8, 2026, “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” trades at 16% YES on Polymarket with $18.94M total volume.
Mixed / balanced market
Implied Yes 15.5% · CLOB volume $18.94M · whales 24h net $167.7k (111 wallets) · 7d net $3.67M · 2/19 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
15.5%
Yes
Implied No
84.5%
No
Volume
$18.94M
CLOB
Traders
13,697
143,064 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
16.0% → 15.0% (-1.0pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$167.7k
Buy
$386.2k
Sell
$218.4k
Whales
111
Last 7 days
Net flow
$3.67M
Buy
$7.24M
Sell
$3.57M
Whales
1379
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x58b3…653c | $896.5k | $706.9k | $189.6k | $-517.3k |
| 0x7c75…4d1d | $680.1k | $251.1k | $429.0k | $177.9k |
| 0xd3a7…3362 | $668.2k | $668.2k | $0 | $-668.2k |
| 0x8b4b…541b | $634.3k | $295.5k | $338.8k | $43.2k |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x58b3…653c | 3,968 | $5.74M | $-4.82M | 13 |
| 0xa3a4…5106 | 4,276 | $2.06M | $-1.82M | 5 |
| 0xeb34…7268 | 2,665 | $1.84M | $-1.61M | 12 |
| 0x23d8…0288 | 1,059 | $1.23M |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
2 open · 19 total · Event board
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $17.97M
83.8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $18.94M
15.5%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $17.12M
0.0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $14.96M
0.0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $10.50M
0.0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $10.49M
0.0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $10.42M
0.0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $9.36M
0.0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $8.03M
0.0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $7.82M
0.0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $7.74M
0.0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $7.74M
0.0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $7.62M
0.0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $5.61M
0.0%
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $5.51M
0.0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $4.98M
0.0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $4.11M
0.0%
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $4.01M
0.0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $2.43M
0.0%
| 0xa3a4…5106 | $526.8k | $513.8k | $13.1k | $-500.7k |
| 0x23d8…0288 | $386.6k | $346.8k | $39.9k | $-306.9k |
| 0x88c4…129a | $378.6k | $250.0k | $128.6k | $-121.4k |
| 0x4c8c…e36f | $355.1k | $168.5k | $186.5k | $18.0k |
| 0x2e7b…bd8c | $301.6k | $103.3k | $198.3k | $94.9k |
| 0x2974…9c23 | $288.2k | $156.5k | $131.7k | $-24.8k |
| 0xfb51…742d | $251.6k | $234.1k | $17.6k | $-216.5k |
| 0xeb34…7268 | $231.7k | $193.4k | $38.3k | $-155.1k |
| $-642.8k |
| 10 |
| 0x8b4b…541b | 575 | $1.20M | $-502.3k | 4 |
| 0x88c4…129a | 1,005 | $1.10M | $-61.7k | 2 |
| 0x7c75…4d1d | 543 | $981.8k | $240.3k | 2 |
| 0x77fb…266c | 674 | $974.8k | $-566.2k | 3 |
| 0xd3a7…3362 | 3,041 | $768.6k | $-767.9k | 2 |
| 0xfb51…742d | 1,258 | $710.1k | $-551.4k | 4 |
