0x3a311da04811ff7c8e003f14cd0ea80a7b95b51812b604228866874e3cd002bd
As of Oct 8, 2026, “Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?” trades at 23% YES on Polymarket with $31.9k total volume.
Mixed / balanced market
Implied Yes 23.0% · CLOB volume $31.9k · whales 24h net $1.4k (16 wallets) · 7d net $3.8k · 4/5 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
23.0%
Yes
Implied No
77.0%
No
Volume
$31.9k
CLOB
Traders
127
907 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
19.0% → 22.0% (+3.0pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$1.4k
Buy
$2.5k
Sell
$1.1k
Whales
16
Last 7 days
Net flow
$3.8k
Buy
$8.9k
Sell
$5.1k
Whales
43
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x34db…1b63 | $20.7k | $9.6k | $11.2k | $1.6k |
| 0xc602…7fc1 | $5.5k | $4.3k | $1.1k | $-3.2k |
| 0x321e…9292 | $3.7k | $2.6k | $1.1k | $-1.5k |
| 0xf08b…517f | $3.2k | $1.6k | $1.6k | $6 |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x34db…1b63 | 681 | $41.2k | $1.1k | 4 |
| 0xc602…7fc1 | 99 | $7.2k | $-4.8k | 2 |
| 0x321e…9292 | 87 | $4.1k | $-1.7k | 2 |
| 0xf08b…517f | 94 | $3.2k |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
4 open · 5 total · Event board
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
open · $30.7k
73.5%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
open · $31.9k
23.0%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?
open · $3.7k
1.6%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?
open · $3.1k
0.6%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?
closed · $1.6k
0.1%
| 0x6406…bc04 | $1.5k | $1.3k | $184 | $-1.2k |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5 | $1.4k | $823 | $529 | $-294 |
| 0x21ff…0d71 | $1.3k | $1.3k | $0 | $-1.3k |
| 0x0f99…6734 | $1.3k | $883 | $406 | $-477 |
| 0x655c…4420 | $1.3k | $914 | $375 | $-539 |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4 | $1.0k | $1.0k | $0 | $-1.0k |
| 0xad53…ef24 | $932 | $804 | $128 | $-677 |
| 0x625b…22cf | $862 | $611 | $251 | $-360 |
| $6 |
| 1 |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5 | 105 | $3.1k | $-1.1k | 2 |
| 0x21ff…0d71 | 73 | $2.8k | $-2.8k | 5 |
| 0x655c…4420 | 73 | $2.8k | $-1.6k | 5 |
| 0x6406…bc04 | 59 | $2.4k | $-1.7k | 2 |
| 0x1f9e…4f1a | 35 | $2.0k | $-1.1k | 2 |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4 | 58 | $1.9k | $-1.9k | 2 |
