Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?

0xecf2f4f2222e3393545e73f6ed219065c6bfa5c66db56a66541a4a20961fca26

As of Oct 8, 2026, “Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?” trades at 0% YES on Polymarket with $868.8k total volume.

Bearish lean

Implied Yes 0.1% · CLOB volume $868.8k · whales 24h net $0 (0 wallets) · 7d net $6.9k · 5/6 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

0.1%

Yes

Implied No

100.0%

Volume

$868.8k

CLOB

Traders

1,230

6,194 trades

Yes 0.1%No 100.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$6.9k

Buy

$6.9k

Sell

Whales

Bull case

•7d whale net still positive ($6.9k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 0.1% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-10-06 15:34:36

100000.0¢$153

—BUY2026-10-06 15:34:36

0.1¢$0

NOBUY2026-10-06 15:18:41

99.9¢$50

—BUY2026-10-06 15:18:41

0.1¢$0

NOBUY2026-10-06 15:18:41

99.9¢

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x92b1…3ce1	$10.5k	$7.0k	$3.5k	$-3.5k
0xc8ab…6418	$9.3k	$9.3k	$0	$-9.3k
0xe615…7f57	$7.0k	$3.5k	$3.5k	$-4
0xb0c8…fe7f	$4.3k	$4.3k	$4	$-4.3k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x1186…051b	187	$62.7k	$-7.5k	2
0xc8ab…6418	27	$53.1k	$-53.0k	4
0x34db…1b63	652	$38.8k	$-6.5k	3
0xb0c8…fe7f	158	$23.2k

Dig deeper with Polydata

Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.

Convert these odds Explore traders Whale feed API