0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607
As of Oct 8, 2026, “Iran leadership change by December 31?” trades at 12% YES on Polymarket with $5.08M total volume.
Mixed / balanced market
Implied Yes 11.5% · CLOB volume $5.08M · whales 24h net $2.6k (31 wallets) · 7d net $134.9k · 4/12 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
11.5%
Yes
Implied No
88.5%
No
Volume
$5.08M
CLOB
Traders
4,234
43,533 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
11.0% → 12.0% (+1.0pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$2.6k
Buy
$6.6k
Sell
$4.0k
Whales
31
Last 7 days
Net flow
$134.9k
Buy
$234.3k
Sell
$99.4k
Whales
174
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8afa…adb6 | $273.6k | $205.1k | $68.5k | $-136.6k |
| 0xb100…6461 | $140.6k | $82.4k | $58.1k | $-24.3k |
| 0x593d…7d5d | $118.9k | $17.9k | $101.0k | $83.0k |
| 0x614d…1546 | $118.6k | $86.8k | $31.8k | $-55.0k |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd5c1…5280 | 92 | $807.3k | $-121.9k | 1 |
| 0xebd3…446d | 69 | $741.0k | $-201.5k | 1 |
| 0x8afa…adb6 | 1,009 | $565.5k | $-370.2k | 5 |
| 0x12d6…f2a8 | 428 | $198.4k |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
4 open · 12 total · Event board
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
open · $360.8k
22.5%
Iran leadership change by December 31?
open · $5.08M
11.5%
Iran leadership change by November 30?
open · $141.2k
6.5%
Iran leadership change by October 31?
open · $421.6k
1.9%
Iran leadership change by June 30?
closed · $4.39M
0.0%
Iran leadership change by March 31?
closed · $3.23M
0.0%
Iran leadership change by May 31?
closed · $3.41M
0.0%
Iran leadership change by September 30?
closed · $1.71M
0.0%
Iran leadership change by August 31?
closed · $1.60M
0.0%
Iran leadership change by July 31?
closed · $1.55M
0.0%
Iran leadership change by August 22?
closed · $79.5k
0.0%
Iran leadership change by March 13?
closed · $3.58M
0.0%
| 0x12d6…f2a8 | $95.7k | $62.8k | $32.9k | $-29.8k |
| 0x1ecc…53a9 | $83.9k | $68.8k | $15.1k | $-53.6k |
| 0xc8ab…6418 | $53.5k | $48.4k | $5.1k | $-43.4k |
| 0x3eae…e2ed | $46.4k | $35.1k | $11.3k | $-23.9k |
| 0x162f…798d | $42.5k | $28.3k | $14.2k | $-14.1k |
| 0x6d9f…9790 | $41.9k | $24.2k | $17.7k | $-6.5k |
| 0x1cfc…2111 | $39.1k | $39.1k | $0 | $-39.1k |
| 0xfb51…742d | $38.7k | $21.9k | $16.8k | $-5.1k |
| $-71.8k |
| 5 |
| 0x3eae…e2ed | 158 | $192.5k | $-88.3k | 4 |
| 0xb100…6461 | 211 | $162.5k | $-37.2k | 4 |
| 0x614d…1546 | 181 | $133.5k | $-55.0k | 3 |
| 0x9d73…216b | 543 | $119.2k | $-72.5k | 6 |
| 0x593d…7d5d | 164 | $118.9k | $83.0k | 1 |
| 0xc8ab…6418 | 255 | $112.1k | $-95.5k | 5 |
