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Iran leadership change by...?Active 25 days left

Iran leadership change by October 31?

0xa4b952e2e0ab85e2949b2f67190d10da6212e030993ad930f55b21adbefda2d3

As of Oct 8, 2026, “Iran leadership change by October 31?” trades at 2% YES on Polymarket with $421.6k total volume.

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 1.9% · CLOB volume $421.6k · whales 24h net $24.5k (22 wallets) · 7d net $127.3k · 4/12 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

1.9%

Yes

Implied No

98.0%

Volume

$421.6k

CLOB

Traders

340

2,369 trades

Yes 1.9%No 98.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

2.0% → 1.8% (-0.2pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$24.5k

Buy

$42.2k

Sell

$17.7k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$127.3k

Buy

$222.8k

Sell

$95.6k

Whales

119

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($24.5k)
•7d whale net still positive ($127.3k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 1.9% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-10-07 21:06:19

5555.6¢$18

—BUY2026-10-07 21:06:19

1.8¢$0

NOBUY2026-10-07 21:06:17

5555.6¢$6

—BUY2026-10-07 21:06:17

1.8¢$0

YESBUY2026-10-07 21:06:14

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x8afa…adb6	$161.2k	$143.0k	$18.2k	$-124.8k
0x12d6…f2a8	$51.7k	$33.7k	$18.0k	$-15.6k
0x97cb…c910	$35.7k	$9.6k	$26.1k	$16.4k
0x6114…cff0	$23.2k	$12.6k	$10.6k	$-2.0k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xd5c1…5280	92	$807.3k	$-121.9k	1
0xebd3…446d	69	$741.0k	$-201.5k	1
0x8afa…adb6	1,009	$565.5k	$-370.2k	5
0x12d6…f2a8	428	$198.4k

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