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Iran leadership change by...?Active 267 days left

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

0xe802435286a79c0086810443a824d596619a6f34f901c112f0b70e4e140d6165

As of Oct 8, 2026, “Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?” trades at 23% YES on Polymarket with $360.8k total volume.

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 22.5% · CLOB volume $360.8k · whales 24h net $74 (3 wallets) · 7d net $7.6k · 4/12 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

22.5%

Yes

Implied No

77.5%

Volume

$360.8k

CLOB

Traders

478

4,101 trades

Yes 22.5%No 77.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

23.0% → 22.0% (-1.0pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$74

Buy

$248

Sell

$174

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$7.6k

Buy

$15.4k

Sell

$7.9k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($74)
•7d whale net still positive ($7.6k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 22.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-10-07 20:52:40

454.5¢$60

YESBUY2026-10-07 20:52:40

22.0¢$13

YESBUY2026-10-07 19:20:51

23.0¢$20

NOBUY2026-10-07 19:20:51

434.8¢$87

YESBUY2026-10-07 18:32:31

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xcc03…d5c0	$21.2k	$12.0k	$9.2k	$-2.8k
0xe258…d084	$14.1k	$7.9k	$6.2k	$-1.7k
0x1359…092e	$13.4k	$8.6k	$4.8k	$-3.8k
0xb100…6461	$12.3k	$11.9k	$374	$-11.6k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xd5c1…5280	92	$807.3k	$-121.9k	1
0xebd3…446d	69	$741.0k	$-201.5k	1
0x8afa…adb6	1,009	$565.5k	$-370.2k	5
0x12d6…f2a8	428	$198.4k

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